Campaign 2024 – The Candidates’ Tax Positions, or, What Can I Offer You Today? by Mike Greenwald, CPA
With just a few weeks to go until Election Day, and with early voting already underway in several states, you would think that each candidate’s policy positions are firmly set by now. It would be even more reasonable to think that about their tax proposals since taxes should be less affected by day-to-day current events.
You would, however, be wrong. As they meet with each new interest group or travel to a critical swing state, they add a new micro-proposal designed to sway a few thousand voters – hoping that will be just enough to change that state’s color from blue to red or vice versa. Visit Nevada with its robust service economy – promise no tax on tips. Michigan, home of the automobile industry – no tax on overtime. New York – repeal the SALT cap a year early.
It should be noted that regardless of what either candidate promises, their ability to deliver depends upon control of the House and Senate next term and that is far from clear. The Democrats currently have a tenuous 51-49 majority in the Senate. Twenty-three of their seats are in play. Of those, pundits think four are either toss-ups or leaning Republican. On the other hand, most analysts believe all 11 Republican seats up for election this year will remain safely red meaning the Republicans may control the Senate but not with a filibuster-proof majority.
Republicans currently hold a 220-211 advantage in the House, with four vacant seats. The consensus forecast is 208-206 Republicans with twenty-one seats considered toss-ups. In other words, no one knows who will control the House.
So, the next president’s ability to influence tax policy will be limited and, if possible at all, subject to the same contentious bending and stretching of Congress’s own rules that we’ve seen since at least 2008.
The attached chart summarizes what each candidate has promised to do to make the tax code fairer – at least as far as some groups of taxpayers are concerned. We will keep you updated as the state-of-play changes. Feel free to reach out to your BPB tax advisor with any specific questions.
About the Author:
Mike Greenwald, CPA, is a director in Berkowitz Pollack Brant’s Tax Services practice, where he focuses on corporate tax, cross-border mergers and acquisitions and financial transaction structuring. He can be reached in the firm’s New York City office at 646-213-7600 or by email at info@bpbcpa.com.
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